How Could Anyone's All-Star Vote Put Porzingis > Embiid?
Yesterday, I saw a tweet from Kurt Helin, managing editor at NBCSports.com. The owner of an NBA media All-Star vote, he announced his chosen starters for this season's defense-free exhibition.
Another media member exclaimed that his ballot was identical, with the exception of choosing Kristaps Porzingis over Joel Embiid in the Eastern Conference front court.
As usual, I rolled my eyes and flushed the toilet, putting my phone safely in my pants pocket. But as I rinsed the soap from my hands, I couldn't let go of that writer's decision.
Frankly, the All-Star selection process is as bad as the game itself (though improved from previous years), and it has virtually no consequence on the future success of those chosen and those shunned. But the players do care. And this specific East Coast debate has played out several times among friends.
Forgive me for venting, but I need you to be my therapist and "listen" to me rant. Because as far as this season goes, The Unicorn is simply overmatched by The Process.
Both All Stars, But Not Equals
Let's just clarify for all of the Manhattan loudmouths: Both Porzingis and Embiid will be All Stars, and both are more than deserving. But the fact that we even have to discuss who is a better player is a product of:
- New York bias
- Embiid's past
- The Sixers-Knicks rivalry
When my Manhattan bros argue with me about the Latvian and Cameroonian, almost never do they provide evidence to the fact that their star is a better player. The only knock they have for Embiid is time on the court. But especially as it pertains to this season's All-Star voting, that line of thinking is simply irrelevant.
While I don't expect guys who argue for the sake of argument to use reason, I would expect people paid to cover the game to be a little more sensible. Yet, there are plenty of NBA voices who will choose Porzingis over Embiid.
Why?
What's the Narrative?
As with MVP and other awards voting, selection to the NBA All-Star game is unfortunately a case study in narrative (and popularity).
This is Porzingis' first season without the presence of Carmelo Anthony, and people wanted to know how he'd perform. When he came out of the gate slingin' hot fire, the NBA world went nuts.
In six October games, Porzingis averaged 29.3 points on 47.8% shooting, with a usage rate of 35.3% and a true shooting percentage of 57.0%. New York and NBA fans had reason to be excited – and despite his chilly December and January, they still do. That excitement largely still lingers.
Meanwhile, Joel Embiid was facing another offseason of "will-he-ever-play" and "31-games" storylines. Fair enough: He's spent more time with trainers than he's spent punking fools who've played exponentially more NBA minutes than he has.
No matter what video you show or stats you present, Embiid haters use the "but-injuries" caveat as a reason to downplay his dominance. But 40+ games into the 2017-2018 season, the injury narrative has no place in this All Star discussion.
As of this afternoon, the Knicks have played 45 games to the Sixers' 40. Porzingis has played in 39 (86.6%) of his team's games to Embiid's 31 (77.5%). Score one for The Unicorn?
Impact on Your Favorite End of the Floor
Now to the information that matters: their actual performance.
Much of the discussion regarding Kristaps Porzingis is his offensive dominance, and damn can he score. But since his hot start, his scoring totals are largely a factor of volume, not efficiency.
According to Basketball Reference, Porzingis is currently averaging:
- 23.6 points
- 19.4 shots
- 32.1% usage rate (% of team plays used while on the floor)
- 48.2% eFG% (accounts for add'l value of three-pointers)
- 53.5% TS% (accounts for value of threes and free throws)
- 105 ORtg (points scored per 100 possessions)
While the first three stats are impressive, Porzingis has produced at below league average in the final three efficiency measures.
Where does Joel Embiid stand in these categories:
- 23.8 points
- 16.9 shots
- 33.1% usage rate
- 51.2% eFG%
- 58.2% TS%
- 106 ORtg
Embiid has simply been a more efficient scorer than Porzingis, though his effective field goal percentage and offensive rating are also below league average. He's also a much better (or willing) passer, averaging 3.4 assists to Porzingis' 1.2.
Embiid's most glaring offensive issue is turnovers – averaging nearly double the TOs of Porzingis. But in terms of overall offensive impact, Embiid has the edge by a small margin.
Advanced stats such as offensive rating point to that. The two players also have identical 1.3 offensive win shares (number of wins contributed due to offense), and Embiid and Porzingis stand at 0.3 and -0.6 in offensive box plus-minus, respectively (the box score estimate of offensive points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player).
Impact on the Boring End of the floor
As much as we love discussing offense, so many other aspects of the game have incredible impact on winning – I like to call it defense.
How do these two stars compare in that regard:
TRB% – percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed
BLK% – percentage of opponent field goal attempts blocked by a player
DRtg – estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions
DWS – estimate of the # of wins contributed by a player due to his defense
DBPM – box score estimate of the defensive points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player
While Porzingis is blocking more shots, Embiid has been a far superior rebounder, and advanced defensive statistics collectively demonstrate the Sixer's impact on that side of the floor.
NOTE: defense has always been more difficult to measure statistically. Many of the responsibilities of a defensive anchor go undetected by statistics, communication and "quarterbacking" the defense, for example.
Who's Having a Better Season?
To this point, both players are having All-Star-worthy seasons. They both admirably handle huge offensive responsibilities and play above-average defense, to say the least.
Porzingis' deserved hype and Embiid's injury history clearly factor into some voters' assessment of their candidacy to start in the All Star game. But The Process has simply had a greater overall impact on winning basketball games:
OTrg – estimate of points produced per 100 possessions
DRtg – estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions
PER – measure of per-min production standardized to league average of 15
BPM – box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player
WS/48 – estimate of the # of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes
VORP – box score estimate of the points per 100 TEAM possessions that a player contributed above a replacement-level player
There is no overall measure that identifies Porzingis as the more impactful player. Joel Embiid simply has a greater effect on finishing games with more points than the opponent.
For those that include team success in their assessment, the Sixers sit at .500 with five fewer losses than the Knicks. And according to Basketball Reference, Philadelphia's played the single toughest schedule in the NBA, while the Knicks have played the 13th easiest schedule.
The future is bright for both of these behemoths, so these debates are much like arguing about whether your Lamborghini is nicer than my Ferrari (Note: I don't own a car).
But if we're going to have this conversation, let's allow the pertinent information to ring true. I hear Joel Embiid is having a better season...